Probabilistic Prediction Model Using Bayesian Inference in Climate Field: A Systematic Literature

Authors

  • Evi Ardiyani Department of Mathematics, Mathematics and Natural Science Faculty, IPB University, Bogor
  • Sri Nurdiati Department of Mathematics, Mathematics and Natural Science Faculty, IPB University, Bogor
  • Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan Center for Applied Climate Services, Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, Jakarta
  • Mohamad Khoirun Najib Department of Mathematics, Mathematics and Natural Science Faculty, IPB University, Bogor
  • Fadillah Rohimahastuti Department of Mathematics, Mathematics and Natural Science Faculty, IPB University, Bogor

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31764/jtam.v7i3.13651

Keywords:

Probabilistics, Prediction, Bayesian, Climate.

Abstract

Wildfires occur repeatedly every year and have a negative impact on natural ecosystems. Anticipation of wildfires is very necessary, therefore a prediction model is needed that can produce predictions with a good level of accuracy. One approach to develop probabilistic prediction models is Bayesian inference. The purpose of this research is to review the methods that can be used in developing probabilistic prediction models using the Bayesian approach. The methodology used is Systematic Literature Review (SLR) which can be used to provide a comprehensive review of Bayesian inference research in developing probabilistic prediction models. The research strategy used was the Boolean Technique applied to database sources including Scopus, IEEE Xplore, and ArXiv. The articles used have novelty and ease of explanation of Bayesian methods, especially predictions in the field of climate so that articles are selected based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. The results show that probabilistic models can provide more accurate results than deterministic models. The Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method is a widely used method because it is easy to implement and develop so that the prediction results can be more accurate. The development of probabilistic prediction models with a Bayesian approach has great potential to grow as seen from the development of the number of research publications over the past 5 years. The research position of probabilistic prediction models with Bayesian approaches in the field of climate is dominated by the research community in China with the main problems related to hydrology.

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Author Biography

Evi Ardiyani, Department of Mathematics, Mathematics and Natural Science Faculty, IPB University, Bogor

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Published

2023-07-17

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Vol. 7 No. 3 (2023): July

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