Ratio Interval-Frequency Density with Modifications to the Weighted Fuzzy Time Series

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31764/jtam.v8i1.16910

Keywords:

Fuzzy time series, Interval ratio, Frequency density, Modified the weight, FTS.

Abstract

The improvement of plantation forecasting accuracy, particularly with regard to coffee production, was an essential aspect of earth observations for the purpose of informing plantation management alternatives. These decisions included strategic and tactical decisions on supply chain operations and financial decisions. Many research initiatives have used a variety of methodologies to the forecasting of plantation areas and related industries, such as coffee production. One of these methods was known as the fuzzy time series (FTS) technique. This  study combined ratio-interval and frequency density to get universe of discourse and partition followed by adopted weighted and modified that weighted. The first step was defined universe of discourse using ratio-interval algorithm. The second step was partition the universe of discourse using ratio-interval algorithm followed by frequency density partitioning. The third step was fuzzyfication. The fourth step built fuzzy logic relationship (FLR) and fuzzy logic relationship group (FLRG). The fifth step was adopted the modification weighted. The last step was defuzzyfication. The  models evaluated  by  average  forecasting  error  rate  (AFER)  and  compared  with  existing methods.  AFER  value  1.24%  for  proposed method.

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Published

2024-01-19

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Vol. 8 No. 1 (2024): January

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