Simulasi Model Epidemi Discrete Time Markov Chain Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (DTMC SEIR) pada Penyebaran Penyakit Campak

Authors

  • Enggaringtyas Probo Putri Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Sebelas Maret
  • Respati Wulan Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Sebelas Maret
  • Yuliana Susanti Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Sebelas Maret

Keywords:

DTMC SEIR, Epidemic, Measles

Abstract

Measles is an acute viral disease caused by  RNA virus of the genus Morbillivirus, family Paramyxoviridae. Measles is very dangerous because it can cause disability and even death caused by complications such as pneumonia, ear inflammation, encephalitis and subacute sclerosing panencephalis. The epidemic model is a mathematical model used to determine patterns of infectious diseases. The epidemic model that describes the pattern of the spread of measles is susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) model. SEIR epidemic model that follows discrete time Markov process is called discrete time Markov chain (DTMC) SEIR. In this study, we will discuss the application and model of SEIR DTMC on the pattern of the spread of measles with parameter values of contact rate , infection rate , and cure rate . In addition, we will compare the values of  and with assumption that  is fixed, and increasing the value of σ. The model will be simulated using initial values  and . The results of this study are SEIR DTMC epidemic model presented in a transition probability that describes the pattern of the spread of measles. Based on the simulation, it was concluded that the measles epidemic did not end until .

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Published

2023-04-15

Issue

Vol. 2 (2023): Prosiding Seminar Nasional LPPM UMMAT

Section

Articles

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